Saturday, 23 March 2013

Cosmo Blazer Special Edition, Zexal Tin and Dragunity

Cosmo Blazer Special Edition 
This product has just been released this week. The promo for this SP are Win-up Shark and Blade Armor Ninja.

Since Wind-up has been the top tier deck for the past two formats, I suppose anyone who is using wind-up are probably the ones who used it in the last format, therefore the increase supply of Wind-up Shark probably means nothing to the market. Its price could drop but I can't see it drops much since people would rather keep the card than sell it too cheaply most of time.

Blade Armor Ninja would probably the card people want more. However, since none of the top tier deck needs it, and the fact that the decks that use it (HEROs mainly) usually use only one (maximum two), therefore the price of Cosmo Blazer's booster pack shouldn't be affected much by these two promos. Hence the prices of the singles in this set shouldn't drop much either.

Ironically, reality always seems to be an opposite of theory. Most vendors drop the prices of CBLZ singles two days ago regardless because of the supply demand equation. Noticeable ones are Noble Knight Medraut($19.99), Lightning Chidori($9.99, $11.99), Pyrorex the Elemental Lord($9.99) and Fire Fist Tiger King ($15.99, $17.99). Even Spellbook of the Master suffers a slight drop despite its future potential, though in my opinion its price still seem to be a bit high for a deck that consists many high rarity cards.

The most interesting one to me is still Noble Knight. There is so many factors I can think of that could increase this card's price in future. First, this is a (first?) TCG exclusive deck type, and I really doubt Konami would give TCG a non-broken deck type. this claim is also supported by the advertisement type of article in the Konami website; secondly, this card will be needed in 3 definitely; thirdly, this is a theme secret rare in a core set; fourthly; base on my play testing, this archetype only need one broken noble arm to be competitive. The special edition may have affected its price, but like I said above, the promos from this special edition are not worthy enough to attract people to buy this product. Therefore I truly think this is the card being underpriced at the moment. Just like how Wind-up Rabbit was before the release of Order of Chaos.

All other cards seem to me are at a very reasonable and steady price. They should not rise much in the future. Lightning Chidori may rise depends on what wind support Konami release in the future, or if Harpie truly meets its expectation and become top tier.

Zexal Tin
Didn't really take much interest in this tin until its official release. This product contain many (or all?) anime cards, and two of those attract my attention as well as everybody else's: Number 61 Volcasaurus and Starliege Paladynamo. These two are probably the money cards in this tin, but they are not very hard to pull. Plus the fact that they are used at one in most decks so I suspect the market should be filled up with more than enough supply soon. In addition, since this tin has a lot of anime cards used by protagonists in Zexal, kids and fans should buy enough to satisfy the market. As a player, I would probably try to get one of each cheaply but I can't see much profit to be made from them, at least not within a year. But for a long term investment, this two cards will probably see a steady slow increase in price.

All other cards are at very low demand while the supply is high at the moment, so I won't be talking about it.

This is actually very unexpected of me discussing this, but I still can't believe I did not realise the potential of this deck. The combo actually exists for a long time, but it lacks the consistency, and Tachyon Galaxy will be the set that provides the consistency it ever asks for, as well as the extra power it needs-  Gaunlet Shooter. With Tempest the elemental dragon, the deck basically has got 6 more searchers in the deck to that search of one of the two pieces require for its combo. Also, similar to wind up, the deck itself will have various options according to the situation assuming the combo can go off. Before I knew about Tempest in Dragunity, I was predicting Blaster (the fire one) will be the most expensive one out of all elemental dragon, but now after playing dragunity, I can daresay tempest will be the one.

On the investment side, all the dragunity stuffs are obviously needed for this deck. However, there's not much that can be invested as most cards come from the structure deck, Vajrayana and Gae Dearg are already too expensive so may not rise much further, Cards of Consonance has been reprinted as common, Trident Dragion and Zhyphros are only needed in one. The only card that is under priced currently in my opinion is Atum, which will be needed in 1-2, and is at about $10 at the moment. This card could be the next invoker because of its flexibility, and that any future dragon release (plenty has been announced) will be beneficial. Gaia may see a rise as well judging how the game starting to focus on the higher rank xyz, especially with the Gaunlet Shooter in Tachyon Galaxy.

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

Back to the Game

I have recently got back into ygo investment, therefore I want to have something as a record of the investment, and so I dig back this blog. I doubt anyone would be reading this, but if you do, I hope you enjoy.

A General Review of the Market Recently
The ban list has just came out, and the only deck that seems to be affected is just wind-up. Other changes in format seem to be caused by the core set cosmo blazer, and the future coming set lord of the tachyon galaxy. in short, there was no profit that could be made from the ban lis. well, may be goyo guardian as it was shown that it came from ban to restricted in one of the fake list. But then again, unless I was the one creating the fake list, I wouldn't have a lot goyo lying around. Besides, even if I have, this would be highly risk as it takes couple days to post the card, and by the time it reaches to the buyer's hand, the list may have been proven to be fake and the buyer may turn their integrity off and declare item not received.

Cosmo Blazer
This set is probably one of the most interesting set in term of ygo investment in a while since a lot of cards went under price at some point. 

Fire Fist
The most noticeable one is fire fist bear, which I thought it was overprice at 20gbp. Now that it's at 40gbp I can't really see that it could go up further since getting a box would be a better option in my opinion. I am pretty sure fire fist horse prince and spirit are both under priced at the moment. However, since these two are dependent on the tcg release of chicken, it's very risky for people who live in Europe. But I would definitely stock them up if I lived in US since the chicken version requires 3 each. And I can see that chicken should be released in this year. If it was released before the sept 2013 format then those should definitely rise, otherwise, it may be dependent on the ban list as it is very likely that konami is going to hit the consistency of deck (tenki and may be even bear). The fire formation cards on the other hand are commons, so not much can be made from them.

I never really follow the spellbook stuffs until divine judgment has been announced so I don't really know what price spell book of master was, but judging from the eBay completed listing the lowest it has been to is 25gbp, but there wasn't a lot completed with less than 30gbp. The deck type has always seemed to be expensive to me so I never bothered to look at it since I thought the profitability wouldn't be good. God, how wrong I was. Ever since divine judgment has been announced, the price of high priestess has been sky rocketing, from the lowest 30gbp as of Dec to roughly 70gbp at the moment. All other spellbooks seem to have risen as well. My predication is that they will definitely be a top tier in this and the next format, and possibly during March 2014 format as well. Reason I am saying this is because there are so many high rarity cards required for the deck, and konami won't kill the deck straight away since that would mean people spend a fortune to play the deck for only one format. Konami will probably reprint high priestess as a tin cover and spellbook magician as one of the promo in the tin, and then hit spellbook of secret to 2 in sept 2013, while not touching divine judgment. Even if they do, they would probably move it to 2 as a joke. Overall, the chance to make profit from this archetype is probably over. I could be wrong since divine judgment could be underpriced when it came out, but I really doubt the US would underprice a key card of tier 1 deck during their national season.

Noble Knight
They have finally released a noble knight that can generate plus: noble knight medraut. I still think it's a long way to go as they would probably require a powerful noble arm, and possibly another good knight in order to become top tier. This archetype actually reminds me of wind-up to be honest. Everything else is just super rare at the moment except medraut and their xyz. And their xyz is quite crap as well (just like wind-up zenmaister). I predict konami would probably release powerful noble arm and noble knight in judgment of light. the reason being that tachyon galaxy has already had too much good stuffs in there so the set would sell itself naturally. there is nothing "broken" in judgment of light yet so they may reserve the good knight/arm in this set.To sum up,if I have to make a choice and invest in one of the deck types available now I would pick Noble Knight. 3 Medraut will definitely be a must for this deck so get them cheap (max 15gbp) if possible. Artorigus will probably be needed when the deck type become viable then start to be dropped out, regardless you either need 3 or 0 for this deck. Gawayn will be run in a subjective amount but it seems that it will be run at maximum when the deck takes off. Laundsallyn is only needed in 1 so no point to invest in him at all. The Noble Arms on the other hand aren't really worth investing in my opinion. When the deck takes off it probably will have a broken Noble Arm which will be needed in 3. Gallatin and Arfeudutyr will both be used but they are common and rare. Caliburn may be a super rare but I can see it being run at 1 (or even 0) when the deck becomes good.

As most thought that it is the most useless of the 3 tcg elemental lords, but turns out it has a use later on in Laval. The profitability would have been good if anyone stocks them up in Dec. It's still not too late to pick up one with decent price. However, since the deck probably only use one, I doubt its price can increase much. Its trend seems to mirror its brothers'.

Lord of the Tachyon Galaxy
As mentioned above, this set consist the card that breaks prophecy. It also introduces the new elemental/incarnate dragon, the phantom beast craft and burning knuckler archetype, as well as boosting fire fist, and the long forgotten harpie archetype. There is no point to repeat the prophecy part as it has been talked through above.

Elemental/Incarnate Dragon
In general I don't think this deck type will be viable in the TCG Meta until their mini counterpart released in TCG. Though I think they will fit well separately into existing archetypes: fire into Laval, earth into karakuri/geargia, wind in dragunity, water into atlantean/mermail. Even though I think those four cannot be put together as a deck yet, the hype it has may create an increase value for the cards that can counter them, cards such as imperial iron wall, soul drain, crimson blader etc... In addition, cards that support them such as gold sarcophagus, necro face, card trooper, dragon ravine, super rejuvenation could possibly see an increase in value. Also, there is no doubt that the hype the OCG is having should put a lot value on these 4 dragons upon official release.

Phantom Beast Craft
New archetype in the set, nothing much is worth any attention yet other than their generic rank 7 xyz, which will be a staple for decks that can spam level 7 such as mermail and elemental/incarnate dragon. This card could potentially be the next big eye if it was a secret rare. 

They get their summoner monk (harpie channeler), divine judgment (hysteric sign) and a new xyz monster. I tried the deck personally and I didn't like it, but I still think it is tier 1 material, because of their mass searcher and field spammer (hysteric party). Also, since this is a revived deck type, and with so many hard core fans around, I think this will probably be one of the safest investments in this set. They are all rare in the OCG set but I think they could be bumped to super, with the xyz being and ultra or even secret just because of the fan service.

Burning knuckler
Anime archetype. Seeing that anime deck type usually isn't competitively playable I would probably avoid getting them. And if I do have any of those I would probably sell them ASAP.

Fire Fist
They get a boost by having their own "kalut" and "night beam", as well as having a new xyz monster that spin opponent's face-up cards and/or cards in graveyard. Nevertheless, they should be a common/rare (the new xyz may be bumped to super) so not much can be invested in the fire fist in this set unless chicken is in this set.

To sum up, even though I am against opening box, this could be a profitable box since there are so many great cards in the set. 4 elemental dragons, 1 treasure from the seven swords, the three harpie cards, the phantom beast craft xyz, and not to mention the TCG exclusive and OCG imports, which could be evilswarm kerykeion and constellar sombres (the evilswarm and constellar one-card-xyz). That's at least 9 cards that are wanted by the majority at super rare or above. I'm still debating whether to get a case or not.