Monday, 4 November 2013

Bit of self input and YCS London

I am finally bothered to write again, I guess I wasn't too far off when I said I hope I won't be updating this in 4 months' time, because this is three months after my last post. Again, good that I don't have any followers to disappoint with.

Ban list
Anyway, since the ban list has been out for too long, I guess there won't be much time and space to talk about my own input about the individual cards that moved up or down, instead, I actually want to talk about the game as a whole.

The obvious thing is that TCG finally has its own separate list rather than following the OCG one, which is good news for TCG but may be bad news for the game as a whole. Since TCG is always 3 sets behind, it actually doesn't really makes sense to have a ban list that focuses on the OCG meta, not to mention that both meta have different promo and exclusive. On the other hand, one may argue that this is one game, therefore should share the same restrictions. To be honest, I haven't heard from anyone talking negatively about separate lists, so I guess everyone is happy about that.

One thing that most people probably noticed though, is that the two lists went to two extreme different approach to control the meta. While the OCG gives nearly all the decks a power play, TCG however, removes nearly all the "win buttons" of the archetypes. I really don't think this is a coincidence that these extreme happened, and I think this could be experiment by Konami, in order to test which approach of the restrictions would be good for game, or a better business model to control the game. Both games will have a new list in May, and if Konami wants to have the same list, it could happen at that time I believe. But by the look of it, I think we will be having a separate list for quite a while.

YCS London
YCS Brighton was the sole reason I got back into the game to be honest, so of course I went to YCS London too. I really hated that they hosted the event along with MCM expo as this inflated all the hotel prices in London. Besides that, the poor management really let me down, even though it was due to unexpected amount of turn out. I still don't find it acceptable though since they attracted lots of people by offering free expo entry for participation. Regardless, I still enjoyed the event, which turned out to be the biggest YCS in Europe..

I always find the pre-tournament report boring so I won't be writing about it, not that anything interesting happened anyway. So here's my tournament report (if I still remember much as I lost the LP paper that I used in the tournament):

Round 1 - Expo visiter
My opponent dropped immediately, got the token and headed to expo. This is exactly what happens when Konami offered such a bargain. Despite this is a win, it is actually the worst win as it affected my tierbreaker, but there's nothing I could do anyway

1-0

Round 2 - Evilswarm
G1: I remember going Ravine, then Colossal Fighter. His turn went for Bahamut, stealing my Colosal, then I pushed back in my following turn and eventually won.
G2: He went Ophion and search Terminus instead of Pandemic and set two back S/T. I thought he had Pandemic already and set both Terminus and Pandemic. Nevertheless, there was one play I had which was Ravine, but he MSTed, and pushed.
G3: I sided back to turbo mode and finished the field with Atum, Stardust and two S/T, it pretty much ended two more turns later.

2-0

Round 3 - Constellar
G1: I can't remember details but I won. I might have went first though.
G2: He went Pleiades and set two S/T. My turn I waited for two seconds and he did not activate anything so I tricked him by saying 'main phase', which he responded immediately by saying 'ok',  I then activated Sacred Swords at once, but he tried to take back and activate Imperial Wall. I didn't let him of course as tricking him going into main phase was part of my plan and he wasn't trying to argue anyway. I drew into Phanlax and use Consonance to drew into blaster. Had Tempest in my hand already and so all my plays lived and won eventually.

3-0

Round 4 - Harpie
G1: Can't remeber but I won.
G2: I was underestimating him and nearly lost due to that. At some point he had Rivalry of Warlord, Harpie Hunting Ground and some other non-wing beast monster, and he summoned Harpie Dancer to pop my Sixth Sense. Then he use Harpie Dancer's effect which I Fiendish Chain. At this point I realised Rivalry was on the field and Dancer should not be able to be summoned at all. Instead of calling a judge we just rewind the move back even though my cards were known, but I figure that probably was the better outcome to my part. He later on summoned Harpie's Pet Phantasmal Dragon in MP2 when I had 4100LP, I figured I should be able to come back at 100LP and so I did and won the game.

4-0

Round 5 - Dragon Ruler (Trigon)
I thought I would start playing mirror match in round 4, but I guess I was lucky to start it in round 5 instead. I actually look forward to that even though I do not have any experience in playing mirror.
G1:  I think he went first, didn't do much. My turn set 3. The next two turns he summoned Blaster and went for damage. After taking 5600, in my 4th turn I finally was able to do something, I went Dracossack, Blader and book the his Blaster and Blader lock him. His turn set some S/T. My turn I tried to went for game by normal summon Dux but he had Crow. He also Maxx C my Phanlax so I stopped there. His turn he turned the game around by Blader lock me back and it went down hill. To be honest I am sure I made a misplay somewhere because there should be no way I should lose with all these advantage.
G2: Since G1 took 30 minutes, I knew this would go to time. But I need to win this game for a draw so I decided to keep the Upstart as I went first. I can't remember anything in the early game, but the this game did went into time and I won on the 3rd turn with a push and draw the match.

4-0-1

Round 6 - Dragon Ruler (Trigon)
My opponent was kind of late (the time hasn't started though) and handed me his deck in a rush without shuffling or counting. I counted 38 cards and I knew this could be a game loss for him if I called a judge. I decided against it in the end because of Kama. He wouldn't let me go first though. Sometimes I was wondering if I should have use every advantage I could have in a large event.
G1: He made Colosal and I couldn't really deal with it, and he won shortly afterward. (Seriously, good Kama doesn't come with anything good)
G2: I won with a Mystletainn play I believe.
G3: He went first and set two S/T. I double MSTed them, Rainve into Colosal. He needed to commit quite a lot to take care of it and I won next turn.

I was relieved that I won really. Had I not then I would be kicking myself for not calling a judge. Though I suspect only a warning would be given with the next policy.

5-0-1

Round 7 - Dragon Ruler (Trigon)
This is actually a feature match, but apparently it is now lost due to server was down. I was looking forward to read it to see what kind of improvement I could have as I lost this match.
G1: I pushed at some point for 8k+ damage
G2: Don't remember the early game, but at some point he had three S/T, I summoned Dux and he chained Maxx C on Phanlax. His turn he Redox, I chained Emptiness instead of Maxx C which I think was a misplay as my field is not quite established. This resulted in Dux poking for 3 turns. Eventually he made a play and turned the game into his favor and won.
G3: I couldn't get anything going and eventually the game went to time. He made a big push and 3300LP ahead on 3rd turn. 4th turn is my last turn in the game. He had Blader face down defense, Ancient Fairy and Tidal in attack. I had 2 Blaster, Ravine, Tidal (used), Debunk and MST in my hand, graveyard has Tempest, Dux, Mystletainn. I set there for like 10 minutes and couldn't figure an out and eventually needed to give up. 
After got back to the hotel I still tried to figure an out, and eventually found that I could have drawn the game. The feeling of losing game that shouldn't be lost is probably one of the worst feelings ever.

5-1-1

Round 8 - Dragon Ruler (Trigon)
G1: Can't remember, I won with second Scrap which he didn't expect.
G2: He Chain Disappearance'd my Phanlax, on top of that he drew 4 of Sixth Sense. Just when I thought it would be good to scoop, I happened to have enough damage, he even Maxx C all my special summon, trying to dig out a Scarecrow but I had Debunk for that.

Round 9 - Dragon Ruler (Trigon)
G1: I went first. Summon Blast for damage twice. At some point he has 2400LP, 2 set S/T, I took a chance and Wing Blast one of his set and he chain it (Waboku). Next turn he summon a ruler and flipped Return.
G2: I won.
G3: He Ravine into Ancient Fairy. I am forced to Ravine then Scrap on Ravine and Ancient, set Sixth Sense, Wing Blast and Return. His turn he summoned Redox, search Debris and tried to go Black Rose, I Wing Blast the Debris. He then Electric Virus my Scrap and hit my Return. I was left with no option and flip Sixth Sense but missed with a 2. I went for Dux play but he Maxx C my Phalanx, at this point I thought I can only hope that he drew crap off Maxx C so I went for Blader, but the cards advantage was too much for me.

5-2-1

Round 10 - Evilswarm
G1: Can't remember but I won.
G2: He had Kycoo with Imperial Iron Wall, then he missed Sixth Sense with a 3 while I drew 4 off my Sixth Sense. Then I Wing Blast'd Kycoo, Blaster Iron Wall, and went for Dux, He Veilered, I Mystletainn, he Veilered again, I banished Tempest for Tidal and Mystletainn again and win within two turns.

Round 11 - Dragon (Trigon?)
G1 - I went first and he drew crap, then I won. He showed me what he drew after the game as well.
G2 - He was on tilt and did the final cut himself. Since there's no way I could top so I don't really care. Ironically he still drew crap. At some point I banished Tempest for Blaster, search for Mystletainn, summon Tidal, overlay for Dracossack, summon token and tribute one for Mystletainn and sycn for Scrap, use Scrap's effect on Dracossack and his Colossal, he was so frustrated and lost in my next turn.

Went 41st after all. Kinda disappointed since I could have a chance if it wasn't for those misplays, but then I didn't have anyone to play mirror with and I refused to use DN for testing as I think it's a waste of time. Nevertheless, I think this is one of the best tournament with one of the best format, I really enjoyed the intensive thinking during mirror match. Hopefully the next format will be as good as this one.

Deck List:

Monster 16
3 Dux
2 Phalanx
2 Mystletainn
3 Blaster
3 Tidal
3 Tempest

Spell 16
3 Ravine
2 Terraforming
3 Upstart
2 MST
1 Gold Sar
1 Book of Moon
3 Sacred Sword
1 Consonance

1 Mirror Force
1 Fiendish Chain
1 Solemn Warning
1 Phoenix Wing Wind Blast
1 Return 
1 Sixth Sense
1 Vanity
1 Compulse

Extra
3 Vajrayana
1 Dae Dearg
1 Orient Dragon
2 Scrap
1 Stardust
1 Colssal
1 Blader
2 Dracossack
1 Big Eye
1 Gaia
1 Atum

Side
3 Maxx C
1 MST
1 Fiendish Chain
3 Xyz Encore
2 Debunk
1 D.D Corw
1 EEV
1 Refpanel
2 Trap Stun

Only regret is that I used Orient instead of Thought Ruler, which would have won me the feature match.

Well, I guess my next big event is national...













Monday, 5 August 2013

Bit of Catch Up...

It's been nearly 4 months since my last post, I guess this means I am not doing very well on updating my blog. But I suppose it's a good thing that no one is following this blog at the moment as no disappointment has been done. Anyway, I was traveling a bit so it's hard to keep up with the yugi news. I have still been able to check it occasionally though.

LTGY Case
Anyway, from my past post I did mentioned about getting a case of LTGY as it seems to be profitable. Well, to tell the truth, I did get a case, my pull however wasn't the best but I guess it could have been worse. I only managed to pull only one dracossack and one spellbook of judgment, which I sold in the next day during the UK national. I also managed to sell most of the stuffs there including those dragon ruler. After that I tried to sell the leftover on ebay  but that didn't seem to make much back. Overall, I think my cashflow was about 100 down, but the stuffs I got leftover are worth more than that, including couple of playmats, some decent generic cards such as Lavalval Chain, Diamond Dire Wolf, 1st Forbidden Lance etc... I aimed to trade for those cards because I think they will maintain their value and has low volatility. But I am not sure if I am still happy about the negative cash flow. All in all, this in my opinion is the set that has the highest probability to profit, and yet I wasn't managed to. Either my trading/selling skill is not good enough, or that the golden rule should always stands : Never Open Packs.

Super Starter
According to Shriek this is the product released after LTGY. I didn't really pay any attention to it at all, even when it was announced in OCG. The only card that caught my attention is Crane Crane, and to all of those who played the plant synchro era, it should remind you Debris Dragon. If only Crane Crane was a set ultra or secret, I think it would be worth to get a couple. However, consider that it is only a common from a 15 cards set, not to mention that it can only get you a rank 3, which is an average play compare to Debris Dragon (as the flexibility of getting a lv 6-11 synchro is still good even in this format), I think the most Crane Crane can do investment-wise is being talked on this blog.

Battle Pack 2
One of the product that I was actually excited about, not because of the investment but because of the old traditional environment this seal play format offers (by the way, even though I said old traditional, I don't seem to remember perform a lot of tribute summon back in the day). If possible, I wish to participate in a sealed play tournament. Anyway, back to the investment bit. As predicted by majority, Cardcar D has been reprinted in this set, though after its reprint it doesn't seem to be the card people want the most, the God cards are actually the ones people sought after. The forbidden trinity has also been reprinted in here, and as someone who possessed three 1st edition Forbidden Lance, I am not too happy about that, especially when its price dropping steadily due to the dynamic of decks in this format don't involve a lot of S/T. A huge surprise to me was the reprint of breakthrough skill. I remember at the UK national everyone was asking how much for my 1st ed ultimate breakthrough skill, I started with 12 pounds, but after like 20 people asking the same question on the same day, by Sunday I was asking for 20 pounds. Well, no one bought it of course, but a few sold at 27 on ebay a week later. However I still didn't manage to sell it. This is probably the most weird thing in terms of economic as no one was willing to sell it at less than 20, yet no one was willing to pay that amount either. At the moment, the BP version is at 6-7 pounds, but I think there's room for it to rise, just need the right format. Also, its pull rate in BP is 1 to 50ish which is not a high in my opinion.

Zexal's Numer Hunter
A 60 cards set with 50 new cards, of which 25 are xyz monster. There are quite of lot of generic cards in this set, the ones that are worth mentioning are probably: Lion Heart, Gimmick Puppet Giant Grinder, Sky Pegasus, Crazy Box, Master of Blade, Machquipped Angineer, Coach King Giantrainer, Norito the Moral Leader (and many more that I can't be bothered to list anymore). Out of these, Master of Blade probably is the only that would be run in multiple due to dragon ruler, and so it may rise in the future. Its price is at about 11 at the moment, so the max I think it could rise to is 15. As for non-Xyz monster, Box of Friend got some hype when the set released, and fall immediately after since this card just got outclassed by Rescue Rabbit in so many ways.

In conclusion, this set doesn't have (much) investment opportunity, although I would try to get one or two Master of Blade just in case.

Judgement of Light
The newest core set that has just been released. Konami also uses this set to show us that they are the God in this game and they can do whatever they want, even the structure of rarity in the set.

First thing I wanna mention is Noble Knight Drystan, which give quite a significant boost to Noble knight (even though the boost still can't make them shift up a tier). As I mentioned in the previous post, since Noble Knight is a TCG exclusive archtype, Konami would not let it become just a fun deck, and in a way, I think they already declare their intention to make it a top tier deck in the future because of their announcement of 5 new Noble Knight cards in the following set, Shadow Specters. Noble Knight Medraut is already showing a rise, and I think the rise could continue since it is the 3-Must card in Noble Knight. This deck type probably be a reflection of Wind-Up in my opinion. Their initial release was showing them as a slow pace deck, until the release of Wind-Up Shark which enable a Xyz spam play. Noble Knight will probably be sharing the same pattern.

Just to show off, I guess it is time to start to harvest these babies :D




*Cough*
Anyway, the set is obviously focusing on fire fist because of the appearance of Coach Soldier Wolfbark and Fire Fist Rooster. Since they are played in 3 and secret rare, and some indication of Konami wanting the next format to be the fire fist, their price tags may not look pretty in the future for players. The rest of the money cards seem to be within the secret rare section as well, the generic synchro monsters Angel of Zera,Armades, Keeper of Boundaries and Star Eater are probably wanted to be kept at one for most players. Therefore, I'd try to lay my hand on them if possible because of the stability.

This set also introduce the Bujin archetype. I have personally tried it a few games on ygopro (with the new card from Shadow Specters), and did not like the style of focusing a particular monster on the field. This results in an extremely slow pace tempo and it does not really do well in today's format. In my opinion, in order for this archetype to be top tier, it probably requires more than powerful exclusive. May be a huge hit to all deck types in the Sept format, but even so, I believe there are better choice.

Ban List
It is the ban list session now, with the domination of dragon ruler and prophecy, I am quite excited to see what kind of move Konami will be making. I will probably talk about my thought in my next post, and hopefully I will do it in four days' time rather than 4 months later.

Saturday, 23 March 2013

Cosmo Blazer Special Edition, Zexal Tin and Dragunity

Cosmo Blazer Special Edition 
This product has just been released this week. The promo for this SP are Win-up Shark and Blade Armor Ninja.

Since Wind-up has been the top tier deck for the past two formats, I suppose anyone who is using wind-up are probably the ones who used it in the last format, therefore the increase supply of Wind-up Shark probably means nothing to the market. Its price could drop but I can't see it drops much since people would rather keep the card than sell it too cheaply most of time.

Blade Armor Ninja would probably the card people want more. However, since none of the top tier deck needs it, and the fact that the decks that use it (HEROs mainly) usually use only one (maximum two), therefore the price of Cosmo Blazer's booster pack shouldn't be affected much by these two promos. Hence the prices of the singles in this set shouldn't drop much either.

Ironically, reality always seems to be an opposite of theory. Most vendors drop the prices of CBLZ singles two days ago regardless because of the supply demand equation. Noticeable ones are Noble Knight Medraut($19.99), Lightning Chidori($9.99, $11.99), Pyrorex the Elemental Lord($9.99) and Fire Fist Tiger King ($15.99, $17.99). Even Spellbook of the Master suffers a slight drop despite its future potential, though in my opinion its price still seem to be a bit high for a deck that consists many high rarity cards.

The most interesting one to me is still Noble Knight. There is so many factors I can think of that could increase this card's price in future. First, this is a (first?) TCG exclusive deck type, and I really doubt Konami would give TCG a non-broken deck type. this claim is also supported by the advertisement type of article in the Konami website; secondly, this card will be needed in 3 definitely; thirdly, this is a theme secret rare in a core set; fourthly; base on my play testing, this archetype only need one broken noble arm to be competitive. The special edition may have affected its price, but like I said above, the promos from this special edition are not worthy enough to attract people to buy this product. Therefore I truly think this is the card being underpriced at the moment. Just like how Wind-up Rabbit was before the release of Order of Chaos.

All other cards seem to me are at a very reasonable and steady price. They should not rise much in the future. Lightning Chidori may rise depends on what wind support Konami release in the future, or if Harpie truly meets its expectation and become top tier.

Zexal Tin
Didn't really take much interest in this tin until its official release. This product contain many (or all?) anime cards, and two of those attract my attention as well as everybody else's: Number 61 Volcasaurus and Starliege Paladynamo. These two are probably the money cards in this tin, but they are not very hard to pull. Plus the fact that they are used at one in most decks so I suspect the market should be filled up with more than enough supply soon. In addition, since this tin has a lot of anime cards used by protagonists in Zexal, kids and fans should buy enough to satisfy the market. As a player, I would probably try to get one of each cheaply but I can't see much profit to be made from them, at least not within a year. But for a long term investment, this two cards will probably see a steady slow increase in price.

All other cards are at very low demand while the supply is high at the moment, so I won't be talking about it.

Dragunity
This is actually very unexpected of me discussing this, but I still can't believe I did not realise the potential of this deck. The combo actually exists for a long time, but it lacks the consistency, and Tachyon Galaxy will be the set that provides the consistency it ever asks for, as well as the extra power it needs-  Gaunlet Shooter. With Tempest the elemental dragon, the deck basically has got 6 more searchers in the deck to that search of one of the two pieces require for its combo. Also, similar to wind up, the deck itself will have various options according to the situation assuming the combo can go off. Before I knew about Tempest in Dragunity, I was predicting Blaster (the fire one) will be the most expensive one out of all elemental dragon, but now after playing dragunity, I can daresay tempest will be the one.

On the investment side, all the dragunity stuffs are obviously needed for this deck. However, there's not much that can be invested as most cards come from the structure deck, Vajrayana and Gae Dearg are already too expensive so may not rise much further, Cards of Consonance has been reprinted as common, Trident Dragion and Zhyphros are only needed in one. The only card that is under priced currently in my opinion is Atum, which will be needed in 1-2, and is at about $10 at the moment. This card could be the next invoker because of its flexibility, and that any future dragon release (plenty has been announced) will be beneficial. Gaia may see a rise as well judging how the game starting to focus on the higher rank xyz, especially with the Gaunlet Shooter in Tachyon Galaxy.

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

Back to the Game

I have recently got back into ygo investment, therefore I want to have something as a record of the investment, and so I dig back this blog. I doubt anyone would be reading this, but if you do, I hope you enjoy.

A General Review of the Market Recently
The ban list has just came out, and the only deck that seems to be affected is just wind-up. Other changes in format seem to be caused by the core set cosmo blazer, and the future coming set lord of the tachyon galaxy. in short, there was no profit that could be made from the ban lis. well, may be goyo guardian as it was shown that it came from ban to restricted in one of the fake list. But then again, unless I was the one creating the fake list, I wouldn't have a lot goyo lying around. Besides, even if I have, this would be highly risk as it takes couple days to post the card, and by the time it reaches to the buyer's hand, the list may have been proven to be fake and the buyer may turn their integrity off and declare item not received.

Cosmo Blazer
This set is probably one of the most interesting set in term of ygo investment in a while since a lot of cards went under price at some point. 

Fire Fist
The most noticeable one is fire fist bear, which I thought it was overprice at 20gbp. Now that it's at 40gbp I can't really see that it could go up further since getting a box would be a better option in my opinion. I am pretty sure fire fist horse prince and spirit are both under priced at the moment. However, since these two are dependent on the tcg release of chicken, it's very risky for people who live in Europe. But I would definitely stock them up if I lived in US since the chicken version requires 3 each. And I can see that chicken should be released in this year. If it was released before the sept 2013 format then those should definitely rise, otherwise, it may be dependent on the ban list as it is very likely that konami is going to hit the consistency of deck (tenki and may be even bear). The fire formation cards on the other hand are commons, so not much can be made from them.

Spellbook/Prophecy
I never really follow the spellbook stuffs until divine judgment has been announced so I don't really know what price spell book of master was, but judging from the eBay completed listing the lowest it has been to is 25gbp, but there wasn't a lot completed with less than 30gbp. The deck type has always seemed to be expensive to me so I never bothered to look at it since I thought the profitability wouldn't be good. God, how wrong I was. Ever since divine judgment has been announced, the price of high priestess has been sky rocketing, from the lowest 30gbp as of Dec to roughly 70gbp at the moment. All other spellbooks seem to have risen as well. My predication is that they will definitely be a top tier in this and the next format, and possibly during March 2014 format as well. Reason I am saying this is because there are so many high rarity cards required for the deck, and konami won't kill the deck straight away since that would mean people spend a fortune to play the deck for only one format. Konami will probably reprint high priestess as a tin cover and spellbook magician as one of the promo in the tin, and then hit spellbook of secret to 2 in sept 2013, while not touching divine judgment. Even if they do, they would probably move it to 2 as a joke. Overall, the chance to make profit from this archetype is probably over. I could be wrong since divine judgment could be underpriced when it came out, but I really doubt the US would underprice a key card of tier 1 deck during their national season.

Noble Knight
They have finally released a noble knight that can generate plus: noble knight medraut. I still think it's a long way to go as they would probably require a powerful noble arm, and possibly another good knight in order to become top tier. This archetype actually reminds me of wind-up to be honest. Everything else is just super rare at the moment except medraut and their xyz. And their xyz is quite crap as well (just like wind-up zenmaister). I predict konami would probably release powerful noble arm and noble knight in judgment of light. the reason being that tachyon galaxy has already had too much good stuffs in there so the set would sell itself naturally. there is nothing "broken" in judgment of light yet so they may reserve the good knight/arm in this set.To sum up,if I have to make a choice and invest in one of the deck types available now I would pick Noble Knight. 3 Medraut will definitely be a must for this deck so get them cheap (max 15gbp) if possible. Artorigus will probably be needed when the deck type become viable then start to be dropped out, regardless you either need 3 or 0 for this deck. Gawayn will be run in a subjective amount but it seems that it will be run at maximum when the deck takes off. Laundsallyn is only needed in 1 so no point to invest in him at all. The Noble Arms on the other hand aren't really worth investing in my opinion. When the deck takes off it probably will have a broken Noble Arm which will be needed in 3. Gallatin and Arfeudutyr will both be used but they are common and rare. Caliburn may be a super rare but I can see it being run at 1 (or even 0) when the deck becomes good.

Pyrorex
As most thought that it is the most useless of the 3 tcg elemental lords, but turns out it has a use later on in Laval. The profitability would have been good if anyone stocks them up in Dec. It's still not too late to pick up one with decent price. However, since the deck probably only use one, I doubt its price can increase much. Its trend seems to mirror its brothers'.

Lord of the Tachyon Galaxy
As mentioned above, this set consist the card that breaks prophecy. It also introduces the new elemental/incarnate dragon, the phantom beast craft and burning knuckler archetype, as well as boosting fire fist, and the long forgotten harpie archetype. There is no point to repeat the prophecy part as it has been talked through above.

Elemental/Incarnate Dragon
In general I don't think this deck type will be viable in the TCG Meta until their mini counterpart released in TCG. Though I think they will fit well separately into existing archetypes: fire into Laval, earth into karakuri/geargia, wind in dragunity, water into atlantean/mermail. Even though I think those four cannot be put together as a deck yet, the hype it has may create an increase value for the cards that can counter them, cards such as imperial iron wall, soul drain, crimson blader etc... In addition, cards that support them such as gold sarcophagus, necro face, card trooper, dragon ravine, super rejuvenation could possibly see an increase in value. Also, there is no doubt that the hype the OCG is having should put a lot value on these 4 dragons upon official release.

Phantom Beast Craft
New archetype in the set, nothing much is worth any attention yet other than their generic rank 7 xyz, which will be a staple for decks that can spam level 7 such as mermail and elemental/incarnate dragon. This card could potentially be the next big eye if it was a secret rare. 

Harpie
They get their summoner monk (harpie channeler), divine judgment (hysteric sign) and a new xyz monster. I tried the deck personally and I didn't like it, but I still think it is tier 1 material, because of their mass searcher and field spammer (hysteric party). Also, since this is a revived deck type, and with so many hard core fans around, I think this will probably be one of the safest investments in this set. They are all rare in the OCG set but I think they could be bumped to super, with the xyz being and ultra or even secret just because of the fan service.

Burning knuckler
Anime archetype. Seeing that anime deck type usually isn't competitively playable I would probably avoid getting them. And if I do have any of those I would probably sell them ASAP.

Fire Fist
They get a boost by having their own "kalut" and "night beam", as well as having a new xyz monster that spin opponent's face-up cards and/or cards in graveyard. Nevertheless, they should be a common/rare (the new xyz may be bumped to super) so not much can be invested in the fire fist in this set unless chicken is in this set.

Overall
To sum up, even though I am against opening box, this could be a profitable box since there are so many great cards in the set. 4 elemental dragons, 1 treasure from the seven swords, the three harpie cards, the phantom beast craft xyz, and not to mention the TCG exclusive and OCG imports, which could be evilswarm kerykeion and constellar sombres (the evilswarm and constellar one-card-xyz). That's at least 9 cards that are wanted by the majority at super rare or above. I'm still debating whether to get a case or not.

Tuesday, 21 February 2012

investment lately

so glad to know that wind-up rabbit has tripled its price overnight. even though i wasnt sure that it will rise or not, i took a shot and get paid off anyway. another card i have invested in is rescue rabbit, which went from 150+ to 100+ within half day, and went out of stock in two hours. hopefully that will rise as well. even if it wont, at least i only got them for $52 (about 30gbp) each.

so to conclude my investment so far:
275 wind-up magician- got them for 16p each and selling for 2gbp for each playset of 3- although they are profitable they are also pain in the ass to shift. i think rares and common are not good to invest in bulks. the maximum amount that should be stock up is 10 sets imo.

14 wind-up rabbit- got them at $18.95(12-13gbp) each, and they are still rising atm. core set secret seem to be a good investment especially when they are low. only regret is that i had doubt and traded away 2 for a profitable deal. oh well, still profitable i guess.

3 wind-up deck kit- these include 2 rat, 1 zenmaity, 1 hunter, 1 factory, 1 kitten, 1 jugglar each. ideally it is profitable. but the value of the item is too much and the seller declared value for insurance, resulting me paying import tax. a valuable lesson for me try to avoid express mail.

34 wind-up factory- got them cheap but they are not rising as much as i thought they would. large quantity is hard to shift as mentioned above. will not do this again for sure.


8 rescue rabbit- $52 each as mentioned above. this teaches me that yugioh market is a fast pace one and require fast response. TnT had 150+ and went out of stock the minute when people spread out the information on how it performed in the YCS.

10 shard of greed- got them at a range of 12-18gbp. it's a long shot but i am regretting it already. reason is that there isnt really much point to invest long term in this market as price can be so fluctuated and a lot of profit can be made in short term instead. . i would rather sit with a lot of cash waiting for a quick, short opportunity to come then invest something 'safe' in long term tbh.

4 emergency teleport- got them for about $4.99 each including shipping. this is another example of act fast, as under price ones were all sold out once the ban list was confirmed. i am also satisfied with the amount since the UK market doesnt demand that many anyway. only let down is that i wasnt able to tell even though this is the only card on the F/L list that has not been reprinted. gotta remind myself this in every ban session to see if there will be another opportunity like this.

0 maxx c- i saw 3 at $66 and hesitated. really regret it now. luckily i have a set to play with.

cards that i think have potential to rise in future:

wind-up zenmaioh
generic rank 5, great effect- destroy 2 s/t, up to twice, set secret. with konami's ban list indicating that they want the game in xyz direction, i can see that high rank monster will become big one day (or may be soon). i have bought one just in case and for the wind-up set anyway, but i think this is the one i should get more if i get it for low value.

photon shockwave box
this is not a card i know. but with the set having so many great cards in, and also the fact it doesnt have SE, i feel this will become the second DREV. if i have to guess, it should be going out of print in about 3-4 months time.

emergency teleport
in the past this card reached to 10-15gbp iirc. but this time it should go back to that price even though it's semi instead of unrestricted. it's because this card comes from a set that is released couple years ago.

Saturday, 7 January 2012

YCS Brighton Report.

YCS Brighton Report
i opened this blog with intension that i can improve my essay skill in preparation for my master dissertation lol. i will be pretty much writing anything ygo related in here, from making profit in ygo, ban list (prediction and afterward), meta game, tournament report, or even some random stuffs. this blog may sometimes be like a reminder of myself doing (or not doing) particular thing, or even as a journal. you are welcome to read it of course, but please bear with me if you find the entries boring as it may feel like i am talking to myself.

As my first blog entry, i guess i should start with my recent success. it may be a bit hard to recall what happened as this tournament was three weeks ago, but i will try to recall as much stuffs as possible. anyway, for this tournament, i have actually prepare it for a month, from booking the hotel, deciding decks, getting cards etc... i originally thought i will be using plant synchro, but after some DN and self playing (having two decks and make the best possible move), i found that rabbit would beat plant like 80% of time, and so i started to see if i could run this deck or not. and eventually managed to get all the cards i need. though i still lacked playtesting. anyway, here's the report.

Roud 1 (VS plant synchro)
game 1: he goes first, tour guide into zenamines, set 2. i go set 3 and reaper. he somehow get the advantage later on and win.

game 2: he sided 7~8 cards. i drew MSt, bottomless, D fissure, kabazauls and saberaurus first hand, summon sabersaurus and set bottomless. his turn, he mst, then set a monster and a S/T. my turn, i topped rabbit, then i mst, and play d fissure. then instead of summon kabazauls into dolkka for obvious advantage, i went rabbit into laggia, thinking i should control the field and go into more control next turn. then another misplay comes when i attack into snowman eater with saberaurus instead of laggia. his turn, summon dandy and overlay snowman into leviathan. pretty much a quick lost from then on.

losing first round is really frustrating tbh. but there's nothing much i can do, or blame, since i wasnt unlucky. i lost because of lack of experience and misplay.

Round 2 (VS Scrap)
game 1: i went first and dustshoot him. his foil cards are so bendy so when i MST him later, i knew exactly what im hitting. somehow he managed to drag to mid game with scrap goblin, and start looping with chimera->scrap dragon. i had no choice but to bait them all out with warning and TKROs, and won eventually.

game 2: i suspect he probably side into gozen match/rivalry, so i side in my third mst just in case, and i was right. cant remember much but i did win.

Round 3 (VS plant Synchro)
game 1: can't remember, but i won pretty quickly.

game 2: he read my gorz and just waited for answer, and eventually won

game 3: cant remember, i just lost.

after this round, i was really depressed, especially everyone i know are all 3-0 atm. i stayed at the table i lost, instead of thinking what went wrong, i thought about what i could do in the following rounds to prevent losing. i looked at the 72 cards that i am allowed to use, and tried to figure a way to maximize my chance to win all the following rounds. i thought: 'even if i lose game 1 due to my maindeck, may be i could side better to win game 2 and 3'. this is one of the most important thing i learn during a tournament: dont give up yet! until you went x-3, you still have as much chance as those x-0. x-1 and x-2.

Round 4 (VS chaos)
game 1: first hand dustshoot i think. he was running kycoo, breaker, zaborg, body as a shield etc... i won anyway

game 2: i went rabbit into laggia i think, he somehow bait out the negation and went sorcerer, i went tour guide into rabbit into laggia to win. to be honest, if only he had more spare cash that would be a BLS and i would have lost. not that i am proud of winning with high end cards, but a win is still a win.

Round 5 (plant Synchro)
game 1: he went first, set a monster and two S/T. I mirror him in my turn. he did nothing in his turn, and then in my turn he flip dustshoot, i lol so hard and asked if he forgot to use it last turn, he said yes. dont know if he was waiting for my heavy/MST or not. later in the game he let me draw 5 cards off maxx, needness to say this is too much advantage

game 2: cant remember, i just won.

Round 6 (VS Agent with high monster count)
game 1: he flipped my deck over once when i handed over my deck, i didnt call him out because i didnt know if he did it on purpose or not, plus he was just a 13 years old kid so i thought it'd probably be accident. anyway, i went first and dustshoot him somehow, cant remember if it was first turn or not. i noticed some unusual card choice for agent which i cant remember, but that sight resulted me to side out all MST later on. cant remember much later on, but i think i won with exact damage.

game 2: only thing i remember is letting him go tour guide into leviair and use rabbit to summon two shine ball into gachi, i cant remember what i had but i could have stopped him. that mistake caused me the game.

game 3: somehow i dealt exact damage again to finish him off.

Round 7 (VS Dino Rabbit)
game 1: i went rabbit and won

game 2: he went rabbit and won

game 3: we both didnt get rabbit and kept doing one for one to each other to top deck mode. he somehow got the advantage with PoA and get reaper on the field to discard my hand, i had nothing on field and hand so i just drew and ended. at this point, he made the biggest mis-read and use reaper to attack, i dont know what he thought it was, but in dino rabbit, the only card that cant be set or summon right away: gorz. and i pretty won from there.

Round 8 (VS Rabbit)
game 1: he went rabbit into two headed king rex ( i thought he was using 9 normal monsters) into laggia, i got 2 normal monster and some S/T. i could have had a chance if he didnt go tour guide next turn.

game 2: i somehow got laggia and control the field. he was using some interesting card choice like faustain bargain (which make me believed even more that he was running 9 normal monsters) and mirror of oaths. when he used mirror of oaths on my sangn which was summoned by tour guide, his card was in french so i didnt recognize it at first, we had judge to translate it because they didnt allow the player next to me to show me an english copy. when it was all sorted out, i totally forgot about sangan's search, and i didnt think he was bothered to tell me anyway lol. but i won the game still.

game 3: he went first and summon his sixth card- sabersaurus, set two cards and end. i drew heavy, MST, warning, and cant remember the rest. i just set warning and end. he summoned some dino and went into laggia, which i warninged. next turn i topped rabbit, then heavy first then went rabbit into laggia. he asked if i topped heavy or rabbit, i said 'guess.' lol, refusing to reveal any kind of information. i summoned two kabazauls and he said "I used the other one instead", i knew he was talking about the king rexed and then realized he was actually using 6 normal monsters. later on the field came to his two cards in hand, one set S/T to my one unused laggia, a set solemn judgment and reborn in hand. his LP was 4600. he summoned rabbit, and i let it go, thinking it would be better to have the rabbit removed just in case he had monster reborn, he went into dolkka which i negated with laggia, he ended there. i topped reaper and reborn sabersaurus for exact damage, he flipped compulsory which i solemned.

(after thought, in game 3, i did consider to leave rabbit in grave instead so that i can go for game more likely next turn since i could then reborn his rabbit and go into laggia. but then i thought there are basically two outs now after his normal summon: dark hole and reborn. if it's dark hole then i cant avoid it at all; but if it's reborn then it will become an out so i decided to eliminate that factor and chose to negate the xyz summon with laggia instead. though if i didnt top any monster, the game would still be undecided since i couldnt have finished him off, and i would not have used reborn if i couldnt finish him off.)

Round 9 (VS plant synchro)
game 1: cant remember much, but at some point i had 3 cards in my hand and he set a S/T. i drew and used dustshoot immediately, i checked my drawn card and said 'wait, i want to activate something in my draw phrase- the drawn MST', and won from there.

game 2: i miscounted my main deck and got a game loss. i was like 'wow, am i that good to win 6 rounds in a roll and decide to let my opponent off for one game!?'

game 3: i went tour guide-> sangan, and set a mirror force and MST. he went set one S/T, which turned out to be solemn judgment, so i thought he shouldnt have gorz, and attack with sangan, which turned out he did have gorz. his turn, he tributed the token for cauis, remove sanagan, turned gorz in defence mode just in case of MF and attacked my tour guide, i was at 5600 after these. i topped dark hole luckily and summon kabazauls and attacked. he went cyber dragon, i checked my LP and said OK, he then summon tour guide into leviathan dragon, i check my LP again and said OK, he then attacked and had the most surprised expression i saw during the whole tournament when i flipped MF lol. i won from then on.

Round 10 (VS Plant)
game 1: cant remember, but i won.

game 2: he got his librarian combo off, i am forced into defense with reaper. there was 7 minutes left so i thought i would have to scoop this game for a chance to top 32. and i did so when there was 3 minutes left. i had already decided what cards to take out during game 2 so i was siding really quick, and we both presented the deck when there was only 30 seconds left. after time was called, the judges said that it was a draw since we have not drawn the cards yet. i argued and said the game has already begun the moment we presented the deck since i saw this was what happened to my friend. the judges was kind enough to let us play on. and so i started with rabbit, tour guide, reaper, gorz, starlight road and something else. my opponent basically got a bad hand i think, he went set a spell/trap and a mosnter, but then i topped MST lol. i won obviously.

(after this tournament, i went home and checked the policy and found that i was indeed wrong about the policy. it clearly says that when time was called, if the first player havent drawn his first cards yet, then the game would be considered as not started yet, hence the match would be considered as drawn. i guess the judges watch knew that we both would not have a chance to top if this match was a draw, therefore they let us play on. whoever you are, i want to say thank you.

So i check the standings later and found that i was in 27th after all. i really couldnt expect more with a 1-2 start.

Top 32: (VS dino rabbit)
I play jake quinsee before in UKpro3, i still remember that beating him 2-1 with my six sam against his dragunity. though i was only lucky at that time since i drew the MST at the perfect time. so i knew this would be a hard match for me, especially with so many wrong card choices in my deck.

game 1: i went first, set reaper and bottomless. he then MST it and summon sabersaurus to attack into reaper (no offense, jake, but you had the worst poker face ever when you saw that reaper lol). he set one S/T and ended. I MSTed it, then tour guide into leviathan then use reaper to attack as well, discarding book of moon. cant remember what happened in the middle, but i somehow lost all the advantage i had gained. sometimes later on, he had two cards in his hand at 2300, i had a set dustshoot, set d fissure, sabersaurus on field and a veiler in hand. he summoned TKRO and didnt attack, and then set an S/T, which he held for turns. i drew reborn, thinking his back row was probably a bluff since he held it for turns, so i wanted to go into laggia. i flip d fissure to stop his TKO, and reborn, then laggia, which got negated by his set solemn judgment. next turn he drew another TKRO and attacked for game.

tbh, he did play that solemn really well, i really didnt see that coming. another thing is that my maindeck is only good for the diversity. so in swiss where i would face any type of deck, veiler and fissure would be a good choice, but once i got to top table or top cut, the playability of these cards are all reduced, and eventually cost me this important game.

game 2: he drew the nuts while he drew the crap. my hand was rabbit, tour guide, MST, dustshoot and something i cant remember. his hand was two tour guide, sangan, reaper, fiendish chain and D prison. well, i couldnt finish him off in my second turn, but he wasnt lucky enough to draw an out either.

game 3: couldnt remember what happened at all. at some point, he had reaper and a set S/T while i had 3 cards in hand and nothing on the field. he flipped vanity's emptiness and attack with reaper, discarding my smashing ground. i topped MST, and had no choice but to set it. he attacked again and i MST his vanity, he chained maxx c. it's either risk to discard gorz or he got more advantage. i went with the former and the advantage he got form maxx was too much for a top decking position.

Main deck:
monsters: 22
3x rescue rabbit
3x tour guide from the underworld
1x sangan
1x gorz
3x sabersaurus
3x kabazauls
2x TKRO
1x reaper
1x Grand mole
3x maxx c
1x veiler

Spell: 11
1x dark hole
1x Heavy
1x Reborn
2x MST
1x forbidden lance
2x smashing gournd
1x d fissure
1x PoA
1x book of moon

Trap: 9
1x solemn judgment
2x solemn warning
1x mirror force
2x bottomless trap hole
1x d prison
1x trap dustshoot
1x torrential tribute

Extra deck:
2x laggia
2x dolkka
1x utopia
1xleviathan
2x leviair
1x zenmaines
1x catastor
1x brionac
1x stardust
1x scarp dragon
1x trishula
1x chimeratech

side:
2x d fissure
1x compulsory
1x forbidden lance
1x dust tornado
1x cyber dragon
2x fiendish chain
1x crow
1x debunk
1x MST
1x effect veiler
1x starlight road
1x gemini imps
1x ??

tbh, even i myself think that my deck is horrible after the tournament lol. if you say that i am lucky enough to top 32, i actually wont deny it, but sometimes this is what a card game is about, a bit of luck, and some skill, then you will be able to top. also, i didnt have time and the right people to play test against with, so i only play on DN for like a week and a bit more, and went to adopt people's thought from internet. so topping 32 was probably the best i could hope for.

though my predication was right, i predicted that there would be a lot rabbit deck in brighton. but i dont want to focus my main board too much on rabbit mirror, just in case i faced some rough deck and lost. i guess that mix feeling did mess up my decision on the main board and added so much random stuffs in. i also lack experience from tournament. the last big tournament i played was ukpro3, which was in march (or april?). but then it was only 8 rounds so it's nothing compare to this YCS (i did came 18th in ukpro3, probably would have topped if it wasnt for one misplay lol).

I really enjoyed and learned a lot from this tournament, there are so many little things i didnt think of before, which may affect the result. for example, from round 3 onward, i chose the seat that can see the clock easier so that i can check the time easily. in round 10, my opponent only looked at the clock when i scooped in game 2, but i had already noticed that time was running and had in mind what to side in already. in the end, he needed to rush to side and may have presented the deck recklessly.

another thing is the hand shuffle thing. the night before this tournament, i met up with people from other cities and playtested with them. i was playing Simon He most of time, and he was probably my most admire ygo player so far, because of his innovation, and the top-a-lot-big-events-but-never-win record. anyway, he told me he could see my hand when i was drawing and hand shuffling, forcing me to change the way i draw and handle my hand through the whole tournament. tbh, there is really no point to hand shuffle, there is no advantage at all, but when you mess up and drop a card, your opponent would have see a card from your hand for free, so why bothered doing it?

I really wanted to go to YCS germany in February, but it's just too much trouble. it is in term time, means i would need to skive lecture; then the tournament is at end of February, that means i would need to keep some restricted stuffs for the tournament, but i would need the cash to pay my daily cost. not to mention i now sold the deck as well. i guess, my next big tournament would be UK national, and this year, for once, i will not have much to do during June, so hopefully i will be well prepared and do well. if not, at least i am qualified for Euro, which i will definitely be going!